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In both countries, a successful spin dictatorship had trouble dealing with political challenges generated by continued modernisation — in particular, protests organised by a highly educated, cosmopolitan part of the population. The first, immediately after the start of the war, led to the exodus of some 100 to 200 thousand people — there are no fully reliable statistics. It’s not clear whether that reflects a wartime unwillingness to speak frankly or a genuine renewal of trust in the authorities. Between 2017 and late 2021, the share of Russian respondents who feared “a return to mass repression” increased from 21 to 47 percent. With regard to both political prisoners and state killings, there is worrying room for the regime to deteriorate further towards the levels of violence found in many 20th century dictatorships. Police have started targeting not just political activists but a much broader circle of people, aiming to spread fear to all who are tempted to protest. Deviation Actions Putin now faces indirect criticism from hardliners for not being brutal enough in his prosecution of the war. One thing the war has changed is the balance within the pro-Kremlin elite. From 47 percent in December 2021, the proportion fearing a “return to mass repression” dropped to just 8 percent in March 2022. And by 2021, 84 percent …